This paper introduces a novel two-dimensional (2D) time series forecasting model that integrates cohort behavior over time, addressing challenges in small data environments. We demonstrate its efficacy using multiple real-world datasets, showcasing superior performance in accuracy and adaptability compared to reference models. The approach offers valuable insights for strategic decision-making across industries facing financial and marketing forecasting challenges.

Many planning and decision activities in logistics and supply chain management are based on forecasts of multiple time dependent factors. Therefore, the quality of planning depends on the quality of the forecasts. We compare various forecasting methods in terms of out of the box forecasting performance on a broad set of simulated time series. We simulate various linear and non-linear time series and look at the one step forecast performance of statistical learning methods.

I know for sure that human behavior could be predicted with data science and machine learning. Taking a look at human behavior from a sales data analysis perspective, we can get more valuable insights than from social surveys. In this article, I want to show how machine learning approaches can help with customer demand forecasting. Since I have experience in building forecasting models for retail field products, I'll use a retail business as an example. Moreover, considering uncertainties related to the COVID-19 pandemic, I'll also describe how to enhance forecasting accuracy.

Players of a free-to-play game are divided into three main groups: non-paying active users, paying active users and inactive users. A State Space time series approach is then used to model the daily conversion rates between the different groups, i.e., the probability of transitioning from one group to another. This allows, not only for predictions on how these rates are to evolve, but also for a deeper understanding of the impact that in-game planning and calendar effects have. It is also used in this work for the detection of marketing and promotion campaigns about which no information is available. In particular, two different State Space formulations are considered and compared: an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average process and an Unobserved Components approach, in both cases with a linear regression to explanatory variables. Both yield very close estimations for covariate parameters, producing forecasts with similar performances for most transition rates. While the Unobserved Components approach is more robust and needs less human intervention in regards to model definition, it produces significantly worse forecasts for non-paying user abandonment probability. More critically, it also fails to detect a plausible marketing and promotion campaign scenario.